リサーチユニットとして政策研究大学院大学内に基盤をおき 、ポリシー・モデリング・ワークショップを開催いたします。月に１回程度開催する予定です。奮ってご参加ください。

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2011年度(予定)

開催済み: 2011年度, 2010年度, 2009年度, 2008年度, 2007年度, 2006年度, 2005年度, 2004年度

第1回

場所: 政策研究大学院大学 4階 会議室4B

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 蓬田守弘 氏 (上智大学)

  題目: 温室効果ガス排出税と国境税調整−寡占モデルでの分析−

  概要: Policy makers of developed countries have paid more attention to border adjustments related to climate change policy, under which a government of a country that is committed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions can apply border measures to trade with a country that does not take a comparable action to reduce its emissions. This paper examines strategic interaction between governments of countries when they determine emission tax policy accompanied with border measures non-cooperatively. It uses an intra-industry trade model of oligopoly with two countries, in which firms produce homogeneous goods and the production of each firm generates cross-border pollution. The optimal policy response depends on gaps in emission coefficients and market concentration between the countries. The properties of Nash equilibrium in the non-cooperative policy game are also examined.

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 高木真吾 氏 (北海道大学)

  題目: 非対称情報下の小売電力市場の入札モデルに関する構造推定

  概要: 本稿では，Martinez-Pardina (2006) のモデルを用いて，費用と情報構造の両方の点で非対称な入札者 (既存事業者と新規参入者) が存在する入札市場を分析する．最初に，官公庁の電力調達入札データを用い て，上記の理論モデルに基づいた形で，市場参加者の供給費用に関する構造推定を行う．次に，推定結果を 用いて，電力の小売市場における自由化の帰結に関する分析と市場参加者の厚生水準への影響をみる．具体 的には，優遇率の導入および潜在的入札参加者の増加という競争促進措置を導入するシミュレーションを 行った．分析の結果，競争促進処置は，直接的に新規参入者の入札参加率を引き上げる方向での影響は小さ いことが示される．一方，既存事業者である電力会社への効率化圧力としては機能し，消費者余剰あるいは 社会的余剰といった厚生水準の引き上げや，入札時に生じうる，高費用応札者による落札という意味での非 効率配分の解消につながる可能性があることが示唆される．

第2回

日時: 2011年9月10日(土)

場所: 政策研究大学院大学 4階 会議室4B

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 田村龍一 氏 (筑波大学)

  題目: Localized knowledge spillovers and patent citations: A distance-based approach

  概要: We develop a new approach to localized knowledge spillovers by incorporating the concept of control patents (Jaffe, Trajtenberg and Henderson, 1993) into the distance- based test of localization (Duranton and Overman, 2005). Using microgeographic data, we identify localization distance while allowing for cross-boundary spillovers, unlike the existing literature where the extent of localized knowledge spillovers is detected at the state or metropolitan statistical area level. We revisit the recent debate by Thompson and Fox-Kean (2005) and Henderson, Jaffe and Trajtenberg (2005) on the existence of localized knowledge spillovers, and find solid evidence supporting localization, even when finer controls are used.

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 佐野晋平 氏 (神戸大学)

  題目: 少人数教育の計量経済分析：静岡県における全国学力・学習状況調査を用いた検証

  概要: 本稿では、静岡県から提供を受けた学力・教員・学級編制データを利用し、非連続回帰デザイ ンに基づいて、教員属性を制御したうえで、学級規模が教育成果に与える影響の検証を行った。学校単 位の集計データの分析から、学級規模の縮小に伴って、小学校6年生の算数の正答率が上昇する可能性 が示唆された。このような効果は、特に女子児童について顕著にみられる。ただし、全体としては学 級規模の縮小が学力テストの正答率を向上させる効果を持つという強い根拠は得られなかった。これ に加え、教員の属性に関しては、児童・生徒の在籍学年を担当する女性教員比率の増加は、小学6年 生の国語・算数の正答率を向上させる傾向がみられた。在籍する児童・生徒の就学援助比率に関し ては、小・中学校を通じ、ほぼ一貫して正答率との負の相関が観察された。女子生徒比率に関して は、小・中学校を通じ、多くのケースで正答率との正の相関が観察された。しかしながら、生徒個 票データを用いた分析ではこれらの結果は必ずしも得られず、政策効果の非線形性と、それを前提 とした政策パラメタ−の推計の必要性を示唆している。

第3回

日時: 2011年10月15日(土)

場所: 政策研究大学院大学 4階 会議室4B

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 椋寛 氏(学習院大学)

  題目: Preferential Trade Agreements, Technology Adoption and the Speed of Attaining Free Trade

  概要: This paper compares sequential trade liberalization through a preferential trade agreement (PTA) and one-shot multilateral trade liberalization with respect to the speed with which countries attain multilateral free trade. We build a three-country oligopoly model, including one developing country whose domestic firm initially uses old technology. Firm-level adoption of new technology and country-level conclusions of trade agreements are endogenously determined. When a PTA that includes the developing country is feasible, but a multilateral trade agreement is infeasible due to prior to technology adoption in the developing country, a free trade area (FTA) accelerates technology adoption and the realization of multilateral free trade; however a customs union (CU) delays these processes. The opposite case is obtained if PTAs are infeasible prior to technology adoption, or if they are formed between developing countries. Even if increased realization of free trade via an FTA improves world welfare, a developed country may prefer liberalization via a CU.

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 大土井涼二 氏(大阪市立大学)

  題目: Growth trap induced by fertility choice

  概要: This paper shows that even in an economy whose technology has the potential to generate long-run growth, depending on the expectations of households, such growth may not be realized in our semi-endogenous growth model because households may not increase their family size. If the preference of households is biased to consumption, rather than to their family size, and the initial ratio of population to capital is small, there exist multiple equilibria with respect to fertility. Zero population growth may occur and economic growth may cease because of coordination failure among households. Multiple equilibria can emerge, regardless of production technology.

第4回

日時: 2011年11月12日(土)

場所: 政策研究大学院大学 4階 会議室4A

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 堀井亮氏 (東北大学)

  題目: Natural Disasters in a Two-Sector Model of Endogenous Growth: An Extension to Non-Insurable Risks

  概要: Using an endogenous growth model with physical and human capital accumulation,　this paper considers the sustainability of economic growth when the use of a polluting input (e.g., fossil fuels) intensifies the risk of capital destruction through natural disasters. We find that growth is sustainable only if the tax rate on the polluting input increases over time. The long-term rate of economic growth follows an inverted V-shaped curve relative to the growth rate of the environmental tax, and it is maximized by the least aggressive tax policy from among those that asymptotically eliminate the use of polluting inputs. Moreover, welfare is maximized under a milder environmental tax policy, especially when the pollutants accumulate gradually.

  As an extension, we consider the case where the disaster damage to human capital cannot be diversified by insurances. In this case, the non-insurable risk creates precautionary savings effect, which promotes overall investment, but it also creates the risk premium effect, which discourages households to accumulate human capital. We found that if the value of human capital in the total asset of household is relatively small, the risk premium effect dominates, which lowers both the growth maximizing rate of environmental tax increase and also the maximized (achievable) growth rate. The opposite holds when the human capital constitutes a large portion in the household asset.

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 高槻泰郎氏 (神戸大学)

  題目: 18世紀日本における金融監督・規制

  概要: 本報告は，田沼意次が実権を握った18世紀中後期の大坂米市場に焦点を当て， 幕府が打ち出した諸政策の意図と効果を検討することを課題とする．大坂米市場で取引 された米切手とは，大坂で貢租米を販売した諸大名が発行した証券であり，1枚につき10石 （約1.5t）の米との兌換を約束するものであった．諸大名は各自が大坂に設置した蔵屋 敷に保有している米以上に米切手を発行し，資金調達を行うことを常としていたため， ひとたび米切手の兌換信用力が失われれば，取り付け騒ぎへと容易に発展した．さらに， 各藩蔵屋敷の在庫米量は，市場参加者に観察できなかったため，ある蔵屋敷の信用不安 が，他の蔵屋敷へと波及する可能性が常に存在していた．この問題に対して打ち出した 幕府の政策は多岐に亘るが，その基本方針は，米切手所持人の蔵米請求権を厳密に保護 することで市場に規律付けを与えるというものであった．つまり，米切手発行の自由を 諸大名に与える代わりに，米切手と蔵米の兌換については確実に履行させるよう規律付 けたのである．米切手取引市場は，幕府司法によって保護されたことにより，発展の素 地を与えられたのである．

第5回

日時: 2012年1月7日(土)

場所: 政策研究大学院大学 4階 会議室4B

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 庄司匡宏 氏 (成城大学)

  題目: Guilt Aversion and Peer Information in Crime: Evidence from Experiment and Survey Data in a Developing Country

  概要: Previous studies find the existence of peer effect in crime behavior, but few studies examine how it occurs. I conduct an artefactual field experiment to identify what causes the peer effect with particular focus on two channels related with the guilt aversion preference; through the change in guilt sensitivity and the second order belief. Three types of experiments are combined: take away game to observe the crime behavior, trust game with a hidden action to elicit the guilt sensitivity, and social information to incorporate the peer effect. It was conducted in crime-prone and cyclone-affected areas in Bangladesh with randomly sampled participants. It shows that the patterns of crime are consistent with the guilt aversion preference rather than the altruism and trustworthiness. The peer effect emerges through the changes in second order belief; when crimes are common, individuals anticipate that the others have pessimistic belief about the risk of crime victimization, which in turn declines the guilt from committing crimes. By using the survey data collected from the same participant households, I show consistent evidence from the real world; individuals are less likely to experience crime victimization in the villages where villagers have higher guilt sensitivity.

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 岡川 梓 氏 (国立環境研究所)

  題目: ヘドニック・アプローチによる東京都区部の洪水被害額の計測―浸水リスク変数の内生性を考慮した分析―

  概要: 浸水被害に関する研究は，これまでに数多くの成果が蓄積されてきたが，�@川へ の距離や標高などを洪水リスクの代理変数として用いているために，他の外部便 益や外部費用の効果を分離できていない，�Aハザードマップを利用したリスク変 数を使って分析しているものの，除外変数によるバイアスを考慮していない，な どの問題があり，被害額を過小評価あるいは過大評価している可能性がある．本 研究では，これらの問題に対処するために，ハザードマップを利用したリスク変 数を利用し，除去変数バイアスを考慮した上で，ヘドニック地価関数を推計し， 洪水リスクの価値を推計した．その推計結果から，�@地価は，洪水リスクに直面 することによって約14.5％低下していること，�A単位面積当たりの洪水被害額は 141万円／�uに上り，東京都による試算結果5万円／�uに比べて著しく大きい値と なった．

場所: 政策研究大学院大学 4階 会議室4B

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 土居直史 氏 (東京大学)

  題目: 空港利用におけるネットワーク効果

  概要: 本論文は、空港利用におけるネットワーク効果を実証的に考察する。 空港利用におけるネットワーク効果として、以下の2 種が考えられる。 (a) 空港利用者増加により、混雑の不快さが増す効果（負の「直接ネッ トワーク効果」）。(b) 空港利用者増加により、ターミナルの店舗の 充実といった周辺サービスが充実する効果（正の「間接ネットワーク 効果」）。日本の航空旅客市場のデータを用いて、これらの効果の存 在と、その重要性を検証する。第1 に、ネットワーク効果の存在の検 証として、路線別旅客数を、その路線の発着空港利用者数に回帰する 誘導形推定を実施する。第2 に、離散選択モデルを利用して、航空需 要構造の推定を試みる。それによって、価格やフライト数と比較した ネットワーク効果の重要性を議論すると同時に、ネットワーク効果を 見過ごすことによる需要構造パラメーター（特に価格の係数）の推定 値の偏りを調べる。これらの分析の結果、(a) と(b) を合わせた総計 で、有意に正のネットワーク効果が確認された。また、需要モデルの 推定においてネットワーク効果を考慮しない場合、考慮する場合に比 べて、旅客の運賃への反応を30% ほど過大に推計した。

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 清田耕造 氏 (横浜国立大学)

  題目: 地域間の生産パターンの違いと賃金格差：ヘクシャー＝オリーン・モデルによる分析

  概要: The breakdown of single factor price equalization, or single-cone world, is one of the central concerns in the various fields of economics. This paper examines the empirical validities of the following two claims: 1) The multiple-cone Heckscher--Ohlin (HO) model fits better than the single-cone HO model; 2) The increases in the number of cones improve the fit of the model. One of the contributions of this paper is that it focuses simultaneously on both production patterns and wage disparities across economies. Empirical results support the first claim but does not support the second claim. This paper also finds that to go beyond a two-factor as well as single-cone model may be a promising avenue for further testing of the HO model.

第2回

日時: 2010年9月11日(土)

場所: 政策研究大学院大学 4階 会議室4B

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 中島賢太郎 氏 (一橋大学)

  題目: Measuring Economic Localization: Evidence from Japanese Firm-level Data

  概要: This paper examines the extent of localization in Japan's manufacturing sector using a unique firm-level dataset on the geographic location of firms. Following the point-pattern approach proposed by Duranton and Overman (2005), we find the following. First, about half of Japan's manufacturing industries can be classified as localized and the number of localized industries is largest for a distance level of 40 km or less. Second, several industries in the textile mill products sector are among the most localized, which is similar to findings for the UK, suggesting that there exist common factors across countries determining the concentration of industrial activities. Third, the distribution of distances between entrant (exiting) firms and remaining firms is, in most industries, not significantly different from a random distribution. The results by Durantan and Overman (2008) for the UK and our results for Japan suggest that most industries neither become more localized nor more dispersed over time.

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 佐藤泰裕 氏 (大阪大学)

  題目: Who gains from capital market integration: Tax competition between unionized and non-unionized countries (with H. Ogawa and T. Tamai)

  概要: The welfare effects of capital market integration are examined under a model of tax competition with two asymmetric countries. The asymmetry is expressed through the labor market: one country has a perfect labor market whereas the other country is unionized. Our results show that the welfare effects of capital market integration are different depending on whether governments play an active role in attracting capital: in the absence of active governments, the capital market integration benefits the country with a competitive labor market and harms the unionized country. If the governments are active and compete for mobile capital using tax/subsidy, the market integration benefits both countries. The government's incentive to participate in a tax/subsidy game is also examined in the integrated capital market. We find that the unionized country always prefers to participate in the tax/subsidy game, but the non-unionized country avoids the game if it is a capital importer.

第3回

日時: 2010年10月30日(土)

場所: 政策研究大学院大学 4階 会議室4A

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 西脇雅人 氏 (GRIPS)

  題目: Horizontal Mergers and Divestment Dynamics in a Sunset Industry

  概要: In an oligopolistic industry, the presence of a business-stealing effect makes the amount of capital excessive. Similarly, in a sunset industry with declining demand, the excess capital cannot be dissolved because everyone intends to free-ride on the reduction of industry supply expected from someone else’s divestment. This paper highlights the potential of mergers for internalizing the business-stealing effect and thereby promoting divestment, and examines whether the merger-induced divestment could improve total welfare using the case of cement mergers in Japan. A dynamic model of distribution facility divestment based on the Markov-perfect equilibrium framework of Ericson and Pakes (1995) is estimated using recently developed econometric methods. Then, a counterfactual experiment is conducted to quantify the welfare impact of mergers and to show that merged firms in fact divested their distribution facilities more and contributed to the improvement of the total welfare despite the reduced consumers’ surplus.

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 猪野弘明 氏 (関西学院大学)

  題目: Fee Versus Royalties in General Cost functions

  概要: Which is better off for the patentee to license its technology by fixed fee　or unit royalties?　Kamien and Tauman (1986) shows that the fixed fee scheme brings greater private value of the patent in the linear model. We extend their analysis into the general model. Then, the simple fact that the model allows a increasing marginal cost supports the unit royalties scheme. More concretely, the unit royalties scheme is superior to the fixed fee scheme when the number of firms is large.

第4回

日時: 2010年11月27日(土)

場所: 政策研究大学院大学 4階 会議室4B

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 桃田朗 氏 (筑波大学)

  題目: Timing of Childbirth, Capital Accumulation, and Economic Welfare

  概要: This paper explores the effect of the timing of childbirth on capital accumulation and steady-state welfare in a tractable way. We show that postponed childbearing not only affects the population growth rate, but also causes fluctuations in the ratio of young to middle-aged workers. The variation in the age distribution of workers causes fluctuations in the capital-labor ratio, and has a negative impact on agents' welfare when the production function is concave.

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 山鹿久木 氏 (関西学院大学)

  題目: 東京都における地域危険度ランキングの変化が地価の相対水準に及ぼす非対称的な影響について：市場データによるプロスペクト理論の検証

  概要: 本実証研究では、東京都において2000年代の都市再開発が進行した結果、地 域危険度に直接影響を与える周辺環境が著しく改善して、地域別の地域危険度ランキン グが大きく入れ替わったことを活用して、地域危険度ランキングの変化が地価の相対水 準（各時点の平均地価からの乖離率）に及ぼす効果について計測している。主要な結論 としては、（1）相対的に安全な地域では、地域危険度ランキングが低下して相対地価 が上昇する変化率の方が、地域危険度ランキングが上昇して相対地価が下落する変化 率よりも大きい、（2）相対的に危険な地域では、地域危険度ランキングが上昇して相 対地価が大きく下落する一方、地域危険度ランキングの低下については相対地価がほ とんど上昇しない。本稿では、地域危険度ランキングの変化が相対地価に及ぼす非対称 的な影響について、プロスペクト理論に沿って、前者の結果をゼロリスク指向として、 後者の結果を現状維持バイアスとして解釈するとともに、その政策インプリケーション を考察している。

第5回

日時: 2011年1月29日(土)

場所: 政策研究大学院大学 4階 会議室4B

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 武智一貴 氏 (法政大学)

  題目: Exaggerated Death of Distance: Revisiting Distance Effects on Regional Price Dispersions (with Kano and Kano)

  概要: Past studies in the literature of the law of one price (LOP) show statistically significant but economically subtle roles of geographical distance in regional price dispersions. In this paper, we challenge this empirical "death of distance" as a primary source of LOP violations investigating a unique daily data set of wholesale prices of agricultural products in Japan that enables us to identify source regions and observe product-delivery patterns to consuming regions. We build a simple structural model to explain the observed product-delivery patterns and argue that ignoring the underlying delivery choice results in a serious under-bias toward inferences on distance effects on regional price dispersions due to sample selection. Estimating a sample-selection model, on which theoretical restrictions of our structural model are imposed, with data of several agricultural products, we find quite large estimates of the distance elasticity of price differential compared with conventional estimates. This paper, hence, provides evidence that conventional estimates of the distance elasticity could be heavily biased downwards and spuriously underestimate the role transportation costs play in regional price dispersions and LOP violations.

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 池内健太 氏 (一橋大学)

  題目: The Effects of Transportation Costs on Productivity and Industrial Location: an Empirical Study of Japanese Manufacturing Industries

  概要: In this paper, the effects of transportation costs on agglomeration economy and dynamics of industrial location are examined empirically. Combining a spatial demand function derived in the theoretical New Economic Geography (NEG) literature, Krugman (1980), Fujita, Krugman and Venables (1999) and others, with a production function, I propose a revenue production function, which captures the effects of transportation costs on firm’s revenue. The suggested revenue production function makes it possible to relate the geographic agglomeration economy with the transportation costs, something not done in previous empirical studies. Two empirical examination of the model with regional panel data of manufacturing sector in Japan are performed. First, I estimate the revenue production function including parameters for transportation costs of each industry. The results show significantly positive transportation costs of the manufacturing products but the transportation costs of the outputs of the primary sector and service sector are not significantly positive. Second, using the first stage results, I estimate the dynamic determinants of industrial location. The results show regional net entry in Japan had been mainly determined by the costs of intermediate inputs (price index) rather than the demand condition and the costs of labor inputs (wage rates).

場所: 政策研究大学院大学 4階 会議室4B

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 川口大司氏 (一橋大学)

  題目: Labor Market Responses to Legal Work Hour Reduction: Evidence from Japan (with Hisahiro Naito and Izumi Yokoyama)

  概要: Japan's labor standard law defines weekly legal work hours, and employers must pay a 25-percent wage premium for overtime. The number of legal work hours was 48 in 1987 and gradually declined to 40 by 1997. During the corresponding period, the average weekly hours of work dropped from 45 to 41, suggesting the causal effect of legal regulation on the actual hours of work. Exploiting the different timing of the regulation change by industry and establishment size, this paper estimates the causal impact of legal work hour reduction on labor market outcomes. The analysis results indicate that a one-hour reduction of legal work hours led to a reduction of 0.14 actual hours worked, but it was not accompanied by a reduction in monthly cash earnings. The recruitment of new school graduates was suppressed in response to an increase in the hourly wage rate.

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 赤井伸郎氏 (大阪大学)

  題目:道州制に向けた効率的行政区域と事務配分のあり方に関する実証的分析 ―行政区域再編のコスト削減効果の検証−

  概要: 本稿では、近年の、行政区域や事務の配分の再編における議論を受けて、そのあ り方を、行政コストの変化額から分析した。 既存研究では、事務ごとに、どのレベルの行政区域で運営を行うことが、費用効 率性の面から望ましいのかに関しての分析は行われていなかったことを受け、本 稿では以下の分析を行った。 まず、事務ごとに、コスト構造を人口や面積、地域要因などから推定し、その結 果を元に、事務ごとに、市町村から都道府県、都道府県から市町村、都道府県か ら道州、市町村から道州への事務を移譲した場合にコストがどのように変化する のかを考察した。

  　その結果、いくつかの事務で市町村から都道府県への事務移譲、都道府県から道 州への移譲が費用効率性の面において効果的であることが分かった。その一方 で、都道府県から市町村への事務移譲は、コストの面から見る限り、かなり限定 的であることが分かった。また、これらの結果は、政令指定都市を推定に含める のかによって影響を受けるが、その効果も少ない。 本稿の分析は、検証の厳密性の観点からは今後改善する余地はあるものの、道州 制や広域行政における効果を明示的にあらわしたという点において、今後の議論 に役立つ情報提供の価値があると思われる。

第2回

日時: 2009年5月23日(土)

場所: 政策研究大学院大学 4階 会議室4B

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 星野匡郎氏 (東京工業大学)

  題目: An Analysis of the Implementation of the District Planning System: Application of Spatial Discrete Choice Models

  概要: In this presentation, I first briefly provide an introduction to spatial econometrics and spatial discrete choice analysis. Then, I present my paper entiltled "GMM Estimation of Spatial Autoregressive Probit Models: An Analysis of the Implementation of the District Planning System in Japan". The abstract of this paper is as follows: The objective of this paper is twofold. First, on the theoretical level, we propose a feasible generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator for spatial binary probit models containing both a spatial lag latent dependent variable and spatial autoregressive disturbances. Under empirically reasonable conditions, the estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal. We numerically assess the finite sample properties of our estimator using Monte Carlo experiments, and confirm the validity of the estimator. Second on the empirical level, we apply our proposed GMM estimator to actual data for urban planning policies in Japan. In particular, this study focuses on the implementation of the District Planning System in Yokohama city, the capital city of Kanagawa prefecture. The District Planning System is a detailed land use management system introduced voluntarily by the local authorities according to the nature of each district and reflecting the demands of the residents for the local environment. Our results indicate the existence of positive spatial autocorrelations in the utilization of the system in terms of both the dependent variable and the omitted variables. This implies that the inhabitants’ preferences for the local environment are spatially autocorrelated, and this is likely because of the interactions between the people in contiguous neighbourhoods and unobservable regional common factors.

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 中林真幸氏 (東京大学)

  題目: Imposed efficiency of the Treaty Port: Japanese industrialization and western imperialist institutions

  概要: Modern economic growth has been encouraged by the expansion of impersonal market trades under governance mechanism with third party enforcement. Third party governance requires the standardization of trade practices, the feasibility of which depends on the features of the goods being traded. While the trade of homogeneous goods such as raw materials is relatively easy to standardize, that of the heterogenous goods is not always easy. Subsequently, a successful economy is one that has achieved a well-coordinated diffusion of impersonal trades from more standardized markets to less standardized ones. In late nineteenth century Japan, which saw the start of the international free trade, treaty port governed by the western consuls worked as a pivot of coordinated modernization of domestic markets.

第3回

日時: 2009年6月27日(土)

場所: 政策研究大学院大学 4階 会議室4B

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 林正義氏 (一橋大学)

  題目: The Effects of Central Grants on Local Social Policy in a Unitary System: a Case of Public Assistance in Japan

  概要: In Japan it is traditionally claimed that an increase in central subsidies makes local governments “excessively lenient” in granting eligibility for social assistance. On the other hand, it is arguable that this is not actually the case because, due to the very fact that the country is unitary, localities are tightly controlled by the central government. This study examines the traditional claim that more central grants induce localities to provide more public assistance. However, it is difficult to identify such an effect since the matching rates are often nationally identical: the identical rates leave no cross sectional variations and their changes are likely to be marred with aggregate shocks. This study circumvents this identification problem by exploiting two institutional aspects of the system of intergovernmental transfers in Japan. Our results show no support for the traditional claim. In many cases, the effects of central grants on public assistance are not statistically significant. In cases where the effects are statistically significant, their values are either sensitive to specifications, or are evident with signs opposite to what the traditional claim implies.

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 中嶋亮氏 (筑波大学)

  題目: The Effect of Collaboration Network on Inventors' Job Match, Productivity and Tenure. (Joint work with Nobuyuki Hanaki and Ryuichi Tamura)

  概要: It has been argued in the economic literature that job search through informal job networks improves the employer―employee match quality, especially in high wage sectors. This paper argues that inventors' research collaboration networks reduce the uncertainty of firms about the match qualities of inventors prior to hiring. We estimate the effect of inventors' collaboration networks on their productivity and mobility using the U.S. patent application database. It is found that network-recruited inventors are more productive and have longer tenure than publicly recruited inventors. The evidence from fixed-effect regressions shows that the higher productivity and longer tenure of network-recruited inventors are not solely attributable to their unobserved ability. These results are consistent with the job match hypothesis between inventors and firms through their collaboration networks.

第4回

日時: 2009年7月11日(土)

場所: 政策研究大学院大学 4階 会議室4B

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 石黒真吾氏 (大阪大学)

  題目: Organizational Dynamics

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 大久保敏弘氏 (神戸大学)

  題目: Productivity distribution, firm heterogeneity, and agglomeration: evidence from firm-level data

第5回

日時: 2009年9月7日(月)

場所: 政策研究大学院大学 4階 会議室4B

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 奴田原健悟 氏 (専修大学)

  題目: Nominal Rigidities, News-Driven Business Cycles, and Monetary Policy (with Keiichiro Kobayashi)

  概要: A news-driven business cycle is a positive comovement in consumption, labor, investment, and output caused by positive news about the future. Standard real business cycle models do not generate it. In this paper, we find that a used market friction - i.e., sticky prices - can be a source of news-driven business cycles from news about future technology growth, technology level, and expansionary monetary policy shocks. The key mechanism is the countercyclical movements of markups through nominal rigidities.

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 瀧井克也 氏 (大阪大学)

  題目: Industry Choice and the Returns to Education (with Ryuichi Tanaka)

  概要: This paper examines the relationship between the return to college and the industry choice of college graduates. We construct a version of the Roy's model, and estimate the probability of industry choice and the returns to college using the Japanese Employment Status Survey from 1982 to 2002. We find that, after correcting the self-selection biases, the returns to college are small in a financial sector and a government sector, although college graduates are more likely to find their jobs in these sectors than high school graduates. We investigate potential causes of this seemingly inefficient allocation of workers across industries.

第6回

日時: 2009年9月26日(土)

場所: 政策研究大学院大学 4階 会議室4B

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 鶴田大輔 氏 (政策研究大学院大学)

  題目: How Do Small Businesses Mitigate the Cost of Financial Distress?

  概要: Financial distressed firms cannot obtain enough credit because the possibility of bankruptcy is high. Therefore, financially distressed firms lose potential profits even when they have profitable investment opportunities, which are called indirect cost of financial distress. However, some small businesses in Japan during the late 1990's are not poor-performing and earn enough profit despite they are in financial distress. Using small business data in Japan, we investigate how these small businesses mitigate the indirect cost of financial distress. First, banks and trade partners do not offer sufficient credit for financially distressed small businesses even if they have growth opportunities. This result is consistent with the previous studies about the indirect cost of financial distress. Second, financially distressed small businesses convert more note receivables into cash by selling them to financial institutions, and use cash holdings more to finance their growth opportunities. These imply that small businesses have several ways to mitigate the indirect cost of financial distress.

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 明城聡 氏 (科学技術政策研究所)

  題目: Assessing the Consequences of a Horizontal Merger and its Remedies in a Dynamic Environment

  概要: T.B.A. This paper estimates a dynamic oligopoly model to assess the economic consequences of a horizontal merger that took place in 1970 to create the second largest global producer of steel. This paper solves a Markov perfect Nash equilibrium for the model and simulates the welfare effects of the horizontal merger. Estimates reveal that the merger enhanced the production efficiency of the merging party by a magnitude of 4.1%, while the exercise of market power was restrained primarily by the presence of fringe competitors. The merger altered the nature of strategic interaction in investment behavior among firms. Our simulation result also indicates that structural remedies endorsed by the competition authority failed to promote competition.

第7回

日時: 2009年11月28日(土)

場所: 政策研究大学院大学 4階 会議室4B

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 近藤絢子 氏 (大阪大学)

  題目: Gender Specific Labor Market Conditions and Family Formation

  概要: Slack labor market conditions for women relative to men increase marriage rates for young women in the United States. This paper examines the long-term consequences of such marriages using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation. I find that the marriages induced by relatively poor economic conditions for women reflect shifts in the timing of marriage among young women who would eventually marry anyway. Labor market conditions at age 18-20 do not affect the fraction of women who will marry by age 30. Further, labor market conditions at marriage are uncorrelated with the probability of divorce or with spouses' characteristics, and marrying young in response to labor market shocks does not change the number of children though it shifts the timing of first birth earlier. These findings suggest that temporary shocks to labor market conditions induce only inter-temporal adjustment of marriage timing and do not affect the reservation match quality or the total fertility rate.

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 工藤教孝 氏 (北海道大学)

  題目: Beauty Contests and Asset Prices under Asymmetric Information

  概要: This paper studies a dynamic Gaussian financial market model where the traders form higher order expectations about the fundamental value of a single risky asset. Rational uninformed traders are introduced into an otherwise standard differential information economy to investigate the impact of asymmetric information. In a two-period economy, there is a unique linear equilibrium; beauty contests under asymmetric information do not introduce excess volatility driven by self-fulfilling multiple equilibria. The price's reliance on the public beliefs reduces significantly under asymmetric information. When the fraction of uninformed traders is sufficiently large, price volatility increases over time even though the information content of the price increases over time.

場所: 政策研究大学院大学 4階 会議室B

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 濱秋純哉氏 (東京大学大学院)

  題目: The effect of the 1999 pension reform on the household asset accumulation in Japan: A test for the Life-Cycle Hypothesis

  概要: This paper tests for the Life-Cycle Hypothesis (LCH), based on a household-level data, by utilizing a change in net pension benefits deriving from the 1999 pension reform in Japan. This exogenous change enables me to identify the substitution effect between the pension and household assets, which can be observed if LCH holds, separately from the inherent positive correlation between them. In this paper, this effect is found particularly for the middle-aged households; moreover, their magnitude is fairly reasonable. Also, findings reveal that less altruistic households behave more consistently with LCH than altruistic households, implying that the estimates of substitutability correctly reflect the variation in household assets in response to the pension reform.

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 原野啓氏 (日本住宅総合センター)

  題目: 国立景観訴訟にみる高さ規制条例の経済学的妥当性

  概要: 2004年6月に景観緑三法が成立したことからも分かるように、景観に対する社会的な関心が急速に高まってきている。

  　国立景観訴訟では、国立市にある学園通り沿いの並木よりも、高さが大幅に上回るマンションの建築により、良好な景観が損なわれたとして、周辺住民が訴訟を起こし、最高裁まで争われた。結果的には、マンション建設は認められ、現在もマンションは存在している。他方、国立市では当該マンションの工事が着工された直後に「高さ20ｍを超える建築物」の建設を規制する条例を施行した。このような国立市の条例は、経済学的に見て妥当なものなのだろうか。

  　国立市が導入した高さ規制を経済学的に解釈するなら、マンション建設によって生じるかもしれない景観悪化という負の外部性を、規制によって内部化する試みであると考えられる。しかし、こうしたマンション建設規制は良好な景観の維持に役立つと考えられると同時に、新規の住宅供給を制限することで消費者が不利益をうけるとも考えられる。

  そこで、本研究では、マンションの建設によって景観価値がどの程度毀損されたかに着目し、景観価値を実証的に測定し、国立市が行った条例の妥当性を検証したい。京都市景観規制に見られるように、今後も景観に関する規制を伴った条例は施工されるものと考えられる。その際、景観を重要視するばかりではなく、同時に失われる社会的余剰を考慮することも重要である。しばしば後者の利益は無視されがちであり、この意味で景観規制や条例の意義を批判的に検討することはきわめて重要であると考えられる。

第2回

日時: 2008年6月21日(土)

場所: 政策研究大学院大学 4階 会議室B

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 村田安寧氏 (日本大学)

  題目: Trade, firm selection, and the 'toughness of competition': General equilibrium theory with applications

  概要: We present a general equilibrium model of international trade with heterogeneous firms in which trade integration affects wages and aggregate productivity by forcing the least efficient firms to leave the market. We then estimate the theory-based gravity equations for Canada-US trade under general equilibrium constraints, and decompose the border effects into: (i) 'pure' border effects; (ii) relative and absolute wage effects; and (iii) selection effects. Using the estimated parameters of our model, we finally conduct various counterfactuals on the impacts of trade integration on wages, productivity, markups, the share of exporters, the mass of varieties consumed and produced as well as welfare.

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 川元康一氏 (京都大学大学院)

  題目: Social Status, Human Capital Externalities, and Optimal Education Policy

  概要: The existence of human capital externalities is typically considered as one of rationales for government interventions into education. However, the necessity for education policies would vary with cultures in societies, since people may evaluate social esteem as a return to investment in human capital. This paper introduces preferences for social status based on human capital holdings into the Uzawa-Lucas model, and investigates the relationship between status desire and positive human capital externalities. The existence of status desire stimulates growth of the economy. However, it may induce excessively fast accumulation of human capital. The value and sign of the optimal rate of subsidy to education, which represent the needs for education policies, depend on the strength of status desire. It is also shown that, in the presence of status desire, flat rate wage income taxes are no longer neutral to the equilibrium allocation.

第3回

日時: 2008年7月22日(火)

場所: 政策研究大学院大学 4階 会議室4B

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 吉田二郎氏 (東京大学)

  題目: "Technology Shocks and Asset Price Dynamics: The Role of Housing in General Equilibrium"

  概要: A general equilibrium model, that incorporates endogenous production and local housing markets, is developed in order to explain the price relationship among human capital, housing, and stocks, and to uncover the role of housing in asset pricing. Housing serves as an asset as well as a durable consumption good. It is shown that housing market conditions critically affect asset price correlations and risk premia. The first result is that the covariation of housing prices and stock prices can be negative if land supply is elastic. Data from OECD countries roughly support the model's predictions on the relationship among land supply elasticity, asset price correlations, and households' equity holdings. The second result is that housing rent growth serves as a risk factor in the pricing kernel. The risk premium becomes higher as land supply becomes inelastic and as housing services become more complementary with other goods. Finally, the housing component in the pricing kernel is shown to mitigate the equity premium puzzle and the risk-free rate puzzle.

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 堀健夫氏 (大阪大学大学院)

  題目: "Educational Gender Inequality and Inverted U-Shaped Fertility Dynamics"

  概要: In this article, we examine the dynamic interactions between narrowing educational gender inequality and inverted U-shaped fertility dynamics by constructing a two-period overlapping generations model that includes both sexes. In the early stage of development, neither males nor females are educated. At some period, males begin to be educated, whereas females remain uneducated. At this stage, the males' education levels, as well as the fertility, gradually increase over time. Fertility achieves a peak just before the onset of the female's education. Subsequently, fertility steadily decreases over time. Gender inequality in education also decreases during periods of fertility decline.

第4回

日時: 2008年8月27日(水)

場所: 政策研究大学院大学 4階 会議室4B

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 花木伸行氏 (筑波大学)

  題目: Born Under a Lucky Star? (Joint project with Alan Kirman and Matteo Marsili)

  概要: This paper suggests that people can learn to behave in a way which makes them unlucky or lucky. Learning from experience will lead them to make choices which may lead to ``luckier'' outcomes than others. By so doing they may reinforce the choices of those who find themselves with unlucky outcomes. People have reasonably learned to behave as they do and that their behaviour is consistent with their experience. The lucky ones were not ``born under a lucky star'' they learned to be lucky.

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 吉田素教氏 (大阪府立大学)

  題目: Efficiency Evaluation on Each Industry of Regional Economies in Japan

  概要: We consider the tasks on the Japanese economy in details. First, we estimate the production function of each industry with prefectural panel data. Then, we select “Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA)” model from the Returns-to- scale of each industry by this estimation’s results. Finally, we implement DEA to evaluate the production efficiency by industry and prefecture in the economic center areas. The empirical results show that all economic activities with high added value have concentrated in only Tokyo; because of the redundancy reaching around 8-9% of total input amount, we have to reform regional economies and social security policies.

第5回

日時: 2008年9月27日(土)

場所: 政策研究大学院大学4 階 会議室4B

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 安田洋祐氏 (政策研究大学院大学)

  題目: Expanding "Choice" in School Choice (joint with Atila Abdulkadiroglu and Yeon-Koo Che)

  概要: Truthful revelation of preferences has emerged as a desideratum in the design of student assignment mechanisms in school choice programs. Gale-Shapley's deferred acceptance mechanism is strategy-proof for students but limits their ability to communicate their preference intensities. This results in ex-ante inefficiency when ties at school preferences are broken randomly. We propose a practical deferred acceptance mechanism which allows students, via signaling their preference intensities, to influence how they are treated in ties. It maintains truthful revelation of ordinal preferences and supports a greater scope of efficiency, a new notion that helps us to compare mechanisms on the efficiency ground.

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 石田潤一郎氏 (大阪大学)

  題目: When Market Competition Benefits Firms (with Toshihiro Matsumura and Noriaki Matsushima)

  概要: A conventional wisdom in economics posits that more intense market competition, measured in almost any way, reduces firm profit. In this paper, we challenge this conventional wisdom in a simple Cournot model with strategic R&D investments wherein an efficient firm (dominant firm) competes against less efficient firms (fringe firms). We find that an increase in the number of fringe firms can stimulate R&D by the dominant firm, while it always reduces R&D by each of the fringe firms. More importantly, this force can be strong enough to compensate for the loss that arises from more intense market competition: the dominant firm's profit may indeed increase with the number of fringe firms, quite contrary to the conventional wisdom. An implication of this result is far-reaching, as it gives dominant firms to help, rather than harm, fringe competitors. We relate this implication to a practice known as open knowledge disclosure, especially Ford's strategy of disclosing its know-how publicly and extensively at the beginning of the 20th century.

第6回

日時: 2008年11月1日(土)

場所: 政策研究大学院大学 4階 会議室4B

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 安藤至大氏 (日本大学)

  題目: Reputation Management and Seniority Systems in Firms

  概要: This paper studies the role of a seniority based profit and task allocation system in a firm. The firm chooses either a farsighted or a shortsighted action in each period. The former corresponds to keeping or rebuilding a good reputation, while the latter to cheating consumers. We assume that even if the firm chooses the farsighted (shortsighted) action, it may get a bad (good) reputation with positive probability. In this situation, we show that an effcient seniority system helps to maintain a good reputation in the sense that the farsighted action profile is sustainable in equilibrium.

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 清田耕造氏 (横浜国立大学)

  題目: Trade Liberalization, Economic Growth, and Income Distribution in A Multiple-cone Neoclassical Growth Model

  概要: The empirical literature on trade liberalization reflects two puzzles. First, the effect of trade liberalization on economic growth is ambiguous. Second, the effect of trade liberalization by developing countries on their income distribution is also ambiguous. This paper attempts to explain these two puzzles at the same time, based on a multiple-cone neoclassical growth model. The model shows that countries that are labor abundant in a global sense may see a rise in income inequality and a decline in per-capita GDP and per-capita consumption with liberalization if they are capital abundant in a local sense. The results suggest that two puzzles can be explained by the existence of global and local factor abundances.

第7回

日時: 2008年11月29日(土)

場所: 政策研究大学院大学 4階 会議室4B

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 田中隆一氏 (東京工業大学)

  題目: Are Contingent Jobs Dead Ends or Stepping　Stones to Regular Jobs? Evidence from a　Structural Estimation (with Julen Esteban-Pretel (University of Tokyo) and Ryo Nakajima (University of Tsukuba))

  概要: The proportion of part-time, dispatch and temporary workers has increased in many developed economies in recent years. These workers receive lower average wage and benefits and are subject to lower employment stability. This paper analyzes the effects of initially taking such jobs on the employment career of young workers. We build an on-and-off-the-job search model, use Japanese data to perform a structural estimation of the model parameters and simulate career paths to study the effect of the initial choice of employment on the probability of having a regular job in the future and on the welfare of the worker. We find that although contingent jobs are neither stepping stones towards regular employment, nor dead ends, starting a worker's career in a contingent job has a lasting effect in terms of the welfare of the individual in Japan.

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 佐々木勝氏 (大阪大学)

  題目: Unemployment and Workplace Safety in a Search and Matching Model

  概要: This paper develops a model with search to examine the determinants of the amount of capital purchased by a firm for workplace safety and investigates a relationship between unemployment and the incidence of work-related injury or illness. Productivity improvement encourages firms' entry and therefore lowers the unemployment rate but instead raises the employment rate, including the fraction of absent workers (scale effect). On the other hand, productivity improvement encourages firms to buy more capital for workplace safety (capital effect). This biases the distribution of employed workers toward non-injured workers, lowering the fraction of absent workers. These two effects determines the relationship between unemployment and the incidence of work-related injuries or illnesses. The empirical exercises confirm that the scale effect had been dominant over the capital effect over the sample period in the US; that is, the unemployment rate and the flow rate of work-related injured workers moved in the opposite direction, but that a movement in the same direction is observed only from the late 1980s to the mid 1990s, so called the period of economic slowdown after the burst of "Bubble Economy" in Japan.

第8回

日時: 2008年12月13日(土)

場所: 政策研究大学院大学 4階 会議室4B

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 岡本亮介氏 (政策研究大学院大学)

  題目: Firm Heterogeneity in Communication Behavior　and the Patterns of Agglomeration

  概要: This paper analyzes the locations of heterogeneous firms, which are differentiated by indices in [0, N], when communication externalities generate agglomeration economies. The benefit of a communication decreases as the cognitive distance between two firms increases. An interregional communication requires travel costs while no cost for intraregional communications. There are also agglomeration diseconomies arising from rise in wage rate. We categorize the solutions into four configurations: unique equilibrium of agglomeration, unique equilibrium of partial agglomeration, unique equilibrium of dispersion, and multiple equilibria of agglomeration and dispersion. Agglomeration is likely to occur when the communication benefit and the travel cost are large.

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 春山鉄源氏 (神戸大学)

  題目: Innovators and Imitators in a World Economy

  概要: This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model of North- South trade and economic growth in a world economy with a continuum of countries. Countries are different in research productivity. Innovation,　imitation and the relative wage between countries are endogenously　determined as well as the number of countries that are specialized in innovative and imitative R&D. We investigate how equilibrium is affected by globalization, intellectual property right protection, industrial policy, competition and migration. The model is also extended to introduce foreign direct investment.

• 注: 以下の報告は取りやめになりました。

  講演者: 増田宗人氏 (日本銀行)

  題目: Do Durable Goods Matter?-Effect on the Welfare Cost of Business Cycle-

第9回

日時: 2009年1月24日(土)

場所: 政策研究大学院大学 4階 会議室4B

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 佐々木彈氏 (東京大学)

  題目: Supply of rare goods (稀少財の供給)

  概要: Rarity can refer to two distinct meanings. On one hand, it refers to prestige associated with rarity value. Goods with such premia are traded as if they were differentiated products even when they are functionally not much different from their non-rarity substitutes. On the other hand, rarity can simply mean infrequency without extra prestige. In the presentation, these two alternative contexts are discussed in respective thought-experimental models considering (i) Rarity with prestige and (ii) Rarity without prestige.

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 前川聡子氏 (関西大学)

  題目: Tax projections and economic forecasts by government bureaucrats: Hidden maneuverings for fiscal reconstruction in Japan (Joint with Mototsugu Fukushige)

  概要: This paper investigates how tax projections and economic growth forecasts are affected by the maneuverings of government bureaucrats who take account of the increasing government fiscal deficit and debt in Japan. The empirical results suggest that income tax projections are an unbiased predictor of actual tax revenue given certain economic growth forecasts. On the other hand, we reveal that corporate and consumption tax projections are underestimated based on the accumulated government debt and fiscal deficit. We also analyze the maneuverings of the bureaucrats on economic growth forecasts and find that the government forecasts economic growth rates using the scale of the fiscal deficit.

場所: 政策研究大学院大学 5階 講義室H

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 山鹿久木氏 (筑波大学)

  題目: 侵入犯罪と地価・家賃

  概要: 住環境などを定量化する方法としてヘドニック・アプローチがある。 本研究ではこの手法を用いて、東京都における侵入犯罪の発生率と 地価や賃料との関係を実証分析する。また犯罪発生率と居住選択の 関係を明らかにし、「安心・安全な暮らし」実現のためにどのような ことができるのかの議論も行う。

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 奴田原健悟氏 (東京大学大学院)

  題目: Asset Pricing Accounting

  概要: What is the source of asset price fluctuation? Does asset price fluctuation affect business cycle? To address these two questions, we construct a dynamic general equilibrium model with assets and time-varying wedges, which resemble productivity, distortionary taxes and government consumption. These wedges are measured so that our model accounts for the observed data perfectly. One of important points is that our model covers a large class of frictional business cycle models. In the present paper, as an example, we focus on Japan during 1980-2003 which experienced large movements of asset prices and business cycles. Measured wedges tell us that (i) the key for asset price fluctuations is frictions which affect asset markets while frictions which affect productivity have little effect on asset prices, and (ii) through spillover effects among wedges, asset price fluctuations affect business cycles. Especially, for the Japanese economy, we find that (i) the boom during the late 1980s might be led by the great reduction of frictions of corporate share market. However, (ii) the slump during the 1990s is not affected by asset market frictions, and the main problem is frictions which affect productivity. We also find that (iii) frictions which affect productivity and consumption-labor choice, might have important roles to account for the declines of asset values after 1991.

第2回

日時: 2007年6月23日(土曜日)

場所: 政策研究大学院大学 4階 研究会室4B

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 内藤巧氏 (東京工業大学)

  題目: Aid, growth, and welfare in an interdependent world economy (with Ryoji Ohdoi)

  概要: T.B.A.

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 宅間文夫氏 (明海大学)

  題目: 密集市街地の外部性と地価

  概要: 密集市街地には狭小敷地や狭い道路幅員等に起因した外部性があり，多くの既存研究では， 都市計画的アプローチで解決するための施策が議論されている．しかし，その外部性の問 題が改善されることで獲得できる便益がどの程度なのか、また施策の費用便益分析等は議 論されていない．本研究は外部性が地価に与えている影響を定量的に明らかにすることを 目的とし，実証分析から，密集市街地の地価は密集市街地でない市街地の地価と比べて， ２〜３％程度下落している結果が得られた．

第3回

日時: 2007年7月21日(土曜日)

場所: 政策研究大学院大学 4階 研究会室4B

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 堀井亮氏 (東北大学)

  題目: A non-exponential theory of sustained growth

  概要: This paper develops a theory of sustained growth that does not depend on the exponential growth of any variable. Existing theories of endogenous growth explain long-term growth in terms of either the exponential growth of physical output, improvements of quality of goods in an exponential rate, or the exponential growth in the variety of goods. However, to obtain those results, those theories typically need to assume some knife-edge properties on the form of positive spillover effects. Using a variety expansion model, this paper shows that those assumptions can be relaxed once we allow price/productivity heterogeneity among goods and variable elasticity of utility function on each goods. In this setting, we derive an asymptotically steady-state equilibrium in which the rate of GDP growth and the number of new goods introduced per unit time, instead of the growth rate of the number of goods, are asymptotically constant.

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 暮石渉氏 (大阪大学)

  題目: Why do First-born Children Live with Parents?--- Geography of the Family in Japan ---

  概要: In this paper, we analyze the strategic interaction between siblings who choose their residential locations in order to receive childcare assistance from their parents. Our three-stage game yields a theoretical result that a first-born child lives closer to his/her parents than a second-born child, which is supported by our estimation results using Japanese micro data. We also show that the childcare assistance from parents is one of the main determinants of the residential location choice of siblings. This paper is the first to succeed in explaining the residential location choice of siblings in Japan using economic incentives.

第4回

日時: 2007年9月4日(火曜日)

場所: 政策研究大学院大学 4階 研究会室B

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 日引聡氏 (国立環境研究所)

  題目: ごみ処理手数料の有料化はごみ排出量削減に有効か？

  概要: 循環型社会システム構築のために、ごみ排出量の削減、リサイクル、再利用の促 進が重要な政策課題となっている。近年各自治体においてごみ有料化制度の導入 が急速に進んでいるが、導入後５年で一割以上の削減を実現した自治体もある一 方で、導入数年後にごみの排出量が導入前の水準にまで戻ってしまった自治体も あり、有料化に対する自治体の効果の評価にはばらつきがある。また、国内外で 有料制のごみ削減効果に関する研究が多く見られるが、その削減効果の有効性に 関して結論が分かれる。 本研究は、東京都と千葉県の市を対象に実施したごみ排出に関する家計調査に よって得たデータを利用して、家計のごみ排出関数(使用したごみ袋の数で測っ たごみ量)を推計し、ごみ処理手数料有料制の有効性について分析した。分析に よって得られた主要な結論は以下のとおりである。 �@ サンプルの平均まわりでの値として、ごみ排出の価格弾力性は、サンプル平均 で-0.208であり、自治体レベルのデータを使った国内の先行研究と比較すると、 2.5〜3倍程度大きなものなっている。 �A 本分析と国内先行研究との弾力性の差は、Fullerton and Kinnaman(1996)で明 らかにしているように、指定袋制を用いた有料化を実施することによって、１枚 の袋にごみをできるだけ詰め込むという行動が行われている可能性がある。 ごみ排出の価格弾力性は、ごみの収集頻度や収集形態、また、一緒に行われてい る資源ごみ政策などにより、変化することが明らかになった。その結果、�@分別 リサイクルを促す仕組みの充実していること、�A小さいサイズの袋が利用可能で あること、価格弾力性を引き上げる効果があることがわかった。

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 山本和博氏 (大阪大学)

  題目:Trade impacts on skill formation: Welfare improvements accompanied by increases in inequality

  概要:This paper focuses on the skill formation when the trade impacts on labor markets. Although workers are identical as unskilled labor, they differ in their productivity as skilled. Workers become skilled by incurring the training costs. Introducing the above settings into a trade model with monopolistic competition, we show that trade opening enhances skill formation. This is because trade enriches the variety of differentiated goods and increases the utility of a worker for a given income. This effect is stronger for skilled workers than for unskilled workers, although it makes all agents better off, leading to higher skill formation. However, it may be accompanied by increases in real wage disparity between skilled and unskilled workers as well as in skilled wage inequality. Finally, we examine the possible effects of foreign direct investment on the labor market structure as well.

第5回 (2007年度最終回)

日時: 2007年10月27日(土曜日)

場所: 政策研究大学院大学 4階 研究会室B

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 中嶋　亮氏 (筑波大学)

  題目: Dynamics of R&D collaboration in IT industry

  概要: In this paper, we provide an empirical analysis of evolving networks of successful R&D collaborations in the IT industry in the U.S. between 1985 and 1995. We first show that the network has become more extensive, more clustered, and more unequal in the sense that 'stars' have emerged in the network. We then run regressions in which we control for firm similarity, including unobserved similarities inferred from the community structure of the network. The results indicate a significant cyclic closure effect and a preferential attachment effect.

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 鈴木彩子氏 (大阪大学)

  題目: Assessing the effect of the yardstick inspection system in Japanese gas industry

  概要: This study examines the effect of the yardstick inspection system in Japanese gas industry on reducing information disadvantage of the regulator. The Japanese government regulates the price of city gas supplies by combining an (ex-ante) yardstick inspection and a fixed-price contract. Theoretically, the current regulation may bring the society to the first best outcome because the yardstick gives firms an incentive to report the true cost and the fixed price contract gives firms an incentive to exert the best efforts. It is known, however, that a yardstick hardly works perfectly and the purpose of the study is to measure its effect.

  Taking the current regulation as given, we estimate the cost function of the gas suppliers under the assumption of asymmetric information between the regulator and the regulated firms. Although we do not observe the ex-ante behavior of the firms, the estimation does not require the ex-ante data but the ex-post data. Unobservable such as effort and inefficiency levels are recovered. Using the recovered parameters, we calculate the welfare levels under the current, the first best, and the second best regulations. The welfare difference between the current and the first best regulations implies the extent of distortion from the adverse selection problem. We examine whether the introduction of the yardstick significantly reduced such a distortion. The result suggests that the Japanese yardstick did not improve the information disadvantage of the regulator, but rather worsened it.

ポリシー・モデリング・コンファレンス 2007

日時: 2007年12月15日(土曜日)　10:00-17:50

場所: 西南学院大学 (2号館7階中会議室)

会場地図:

• キャンパスの地図
• キャンパス内・2号館の場所

プログラム

午前の部　10:00-12:00　　座長:田中隆一(東京工業大学)

• 報告者:瀧井克也(大阪大学)

  題目:The Persistence of Differences in Productivity, Wages, Skill Mixes and　Profits between Firms

  討論者:佐々木彈(東京大学)

• 報告者:吉田恵子(桃山学院大学)

  題目:教育分野と就職先のマッチング−専門学校生データを用いた分析

  討論者:田畑顕(神戸市外国語大学)

午後の部I　13:30-15:30　　座長:金子昭彦(東京工業大学)

• 報告者:桃田朗(大阪府立大学)

  題目:A Population-Macroeconomic Growth Model for Current Developing Countries

  討論者:近藤広紀(信州大学)

• 報告者:芦谷政浩(神戸大学)

  題目:Aging Population and Economic Growth: A Political Economy Perspective

  討論者:赤井伸郎(大阪大学)

午後の部II　15:50-17:50　　座長:中林真幸(大阪大学)

• 報告者:中島賢太郎(東京大学)

  題目:Economic Division and Spatial Relocation: The Case of Postwar Japan

  討論者:椋寛(学習院大学)

• 報告者:清水大昌(学習院大学)

  題目:Joint Production Subsidiaries: Are they all welfare-enhancing?

  討論者:高橋孝明(東京大学)

場所: 富山大学 経済学部 大会議室

地図: http://www.toyama-u.ac.jp/jp/Outline/access/

午前の部　10:00〜12:00　　座長: 椋寛 (学習院大学 経済学部)

報告者: 須賀宣仁 (北海道大学 経済学部)

題目: A Monopolistic Competition Model of International Trade with External Economies of Scale

討論者: 村田安寧 (日本大学大学院 総合科学研究科)

報告者: 広瀬恭子 (九州産業大学 経済学部)

題目: Migration and agglomeration with knowledge spillovers

討論者: 金子昭彦 (東京工業大学大学院 社会理工学研究科)

午後の部�T　13:30〜15:30　　座長: 内藤 巧 (東京工業大学大学院 社会理工学研究科)

報告者: 堀井 亮 (大阪大学大学院 経済学研究科)

題目: Natural Disasters in a Two-Sector Model of Endogenous Growth (with Masako Ikefuji)

討論者: 宝多康弘 (南山大学 総合政策学部)

報告者: 佐藤泰裕 (名古屋大学大学院 環境学研究科)

題目: Tax Competition and Public Input Provision with Imperfect Labor Market (with Hikaru Ogawa and Toshiki Tamai)

討論者: 清水大昌 (学習院大学 経済学部)

午後の部�U　15:50〜17:50　　座長: 芦谷政浩 (神戸大学大学院 経済学研究科)

報告者: 松島法明 (神戸大学大学院 経営学研究科)

題目: Profit-enhancing know-how disclosure: A strategic view　(with Susumu Ogawa)

討論者: 吾郷貴紀 (高崎経済大学 地域政策学部)

報告者: 中泉拓也 (関東学院大学 経済学部)

題目: 「環境負荷の小さい物流体系の構築を目指す実証実験」におけるオークション制度の分析

討論者: 石橋郁雄 (青山学院大学 経済学部)

* 報告40分、予定討論10分、リプライおよびフロアからの討論10分とします。

第1回 (2006年度分・開催済み)

日時: 2006年7月15日(土曜日) 14:00-18:00

場所: 政策研究大学院大学 1階 1B会議室

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 岡本亮介氏 (政策研究大学院大学)
  

  題目: 日本の空港機能配分:空間経済の視点から

  概要: 空港整備に関わる費用便益分析において、考慮すべき項目とその計測方法について整理する。日本の空港機能配分の歪みをもたらしている諸要因を空間経済学の視点から整理し、改善の方向性について議論する。一部の政策については、便益の概算値を簡単な数値計算により示す。

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 中島賢太郎氏 (東京大学大学院 経済学研究科)

  題目: The Effect of Knowledge Accessibility on International Income Inequality

  概要: Using a structural model of new economic geography, we estimate the effect of accessibility to foreign knowledge on international income distribution. Whereas previous literature has mainly focused on the importance of geographical accessibility to foreign markets, this paper emphasizes the role of accessibility to foreign knowledge in determining international income inequality. Using cross-country data of income per worker, bilateral trade flows, and number of flight passengers, we find evidence that the accessibility to foreign knowledge raises per capita income significantly.

第2回

日時: 2006年8月9日(水曜日) 14:00-18:00

場所: 政策研究大学院大学 1階 1B会議室

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 祝迫達郎氏 (立命館大学 経済学部)

  題目: Patent Enforcement, Capital Accumulation, and Economic Growth

  概要: We investigate how patent policy affects economic growth in an endogenous growth model in which both innovation and capital accumulation are driving forces of economic growth. In endogenous growth models with only innovation, tightening patent protection necessarily enhances economic growth. In the present model, stronger patent protection raises the rate of innovation but reduces the rental rate of capital, and thus accelerates innovation but discourages capital accumulation. Consequently, strengthening patent protection may reduce the growth rate of output. This result contrasts with those of growth models with only innovation. In addition, the growth-maximizing degree of patent protection is lower than the maximum degree of patent protection. We also investigate how patent protection affects social welfare and show that the welfare-maximizing degree of patent protection is lower than the growth-maximizing degree of patent protection.

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 杉本佳亮氏 (大阪大学 社会経済研究所)

  題目: Endogenous Globalization and Income Divergence

  概要: This paper develops a growth theory that accounts for the evolution of trade policy, underlying internal class conflicts, and global income divergence over the last few centuries. By analyzing political responses to the distributional effects of international trade, this paper finds a prominent interaction between trade policy and the pattern of economic development, and suggests that the nature of the interaction depends on a country's resource abundance and distribution. As shown by the example of Western Europe, land-scarce countries will reach a developed stage through a non-monotonic evolution of trade policy. In contrast, land-abundant countries, especially those with concentrated landownership, tend to fail to take off because of landlords' opposition to industrialization.

第3回

日時: 2006年9月9日(土曜日) 14:00-18:00

場所: 政策研究大学院大学 1階 1B会議室

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 中林真幸氏 (大阪大学大学院 経済学研究科)

  題目: Hedonic Prices and Multidimensional Incentives

  概要: Human tasks are often multidimensional. Holmstrom and Milgrom (1991) concluded that high-powered” incentives cannot work unless all dimensions of these tasks are observable in the firm. However, as this study shows, if the firm can observe the price vector of its products in the market, distinguish each dimension of the price vector, and connect the information with signals from workers in the firm, then the use of multidimensional“high-powered” incentives becomes feasible. Product differentiation with committed quality satisfies those conditions, which has been practiced by the Japanese, but not by the Western, manufacturing for a century.

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 肥前洋一氏 (北海道大学大学院 経済学研究科)

  題目: Olympic Athlete Selection

  概要: Olympic athlete selection procedures are different among countries and events, and famous athletes are often reported to have lost their selection races. This paper analyzes what type of procedure is more likely to select high-ability athletes while preventing low-ability athletes from being selected by chance. Our game-theoretic model shows that holding one race only is more likely to select high-ability athletes than evaluating each athlete's best or average record in multiple races with voluntary participation. The effect of injury, which prevents athletes from participating in particular races with a positive probability, is also examined.

第4回

日時: 2006年11月18日(土曜日) 14:00-18:00

場所: 政策研究大学院大学 1階 会議室1A

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 鶴田大輔氏 (政策研究大学院大学)

  題目: Credit Contagion and Trade Credit Supply: Evidence from Small Business Data in Japan

  概要: In this paper, we investigate whether the credit contagion decrease the trade credit supply for small businesses using micro data. Japanese economy experienced a large recession after 1997 and the number of dishonored bills and bankruptcy filings caused by domino effects increased. If many suppliers worried about default of customers due to credit contagion, they might withdraw more trade credit from customers even though the credit risk of customers is low. We find that trade payables decrease during the large recession, especially for manufacturers and wholesalers. Also, the credit contagion reduces more trade credit for risky and non-risky small firms in manufacture. However, the effects of contagion are weak for other industry.

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 岩田真一郎氏 (富山大学 経済学部)

  題目: Geographic Concentration of Homelessness in the Heartland of Osaka City

  概要: In the theoretical part of the paper, we present a spatial economy with homelessness for a monocentric city. We demonstrate that homeless people tend to occupy public space located at the center of the city because of savings in transport cost and the presence of network externalities. This location choice mechanism drives the geographic concentration of homeless people in the heartland of city. Using a conditional logit model for location choice of homeless people, and a spatial autoregressive model for a geographic distribution of them in Osaka City, we obtain results that are consistent with the theoretical predictions.

第5回

日時: 2006年12月2日 (土曜日) 14:00-18:00

場所: 政策研究大学院大学 1階 会議室1B

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 高橋孝明氏　(東京大学 空間情報科学センター)

  題目: Is the Transport Sector Too Large? Welfare Analysis of the Trade Model with a Transport Sector

  概要: Because the demand for the transport services stems from that for the final goods, the sizes of the transport sector and the final goods sector in an economy depend on each other and are determined simultaneously. If there is a distortion in the transport sector, notably a distortion arising from the imperfect competition, however, its size realized by the market mechanism may differ from the socially desirable one. In this paper, I examine how the consequence of the market mechanism differs from the social optimum, considering the first best policy, the price regulation and the entry regulation.

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 宮本由紀氏　(名城大学 都市情報学部)

  題目: 余剰の推定誤差を考慮した費用便益分析---公立幼稚園への適応---

  概要: 余剰分析を用いて便益を計測する場合、需要曲線と供給曲線を推計する必要がある。推計された需要曲線と供給曲線は誤差項を含むために、そこから求められた余剰は推定誤差が生じる。便益の値が推定誤差を含むことを考慮せずに費用と便益の比率を見た場合、統計的には1に等しいと判断できる場合でも、1より大きいあるいは小さいと判断されてしまう可能性がある。本稿では、余剰分析を用いた便益が推計誤差を持つことを考慮するために、費用と便益の比率が1に等しいかの仮説検定を行う。帰無仮説が棄却され、その値が1よりも小さ(大き)ければ、プロジェクトから得られる便益は費用よりも小さい(大きい)と判断することができるであろう。分析対象としては日本の公立幼稚園を用いる。分析結果から以下のようなことが明らかとなった。47都道府県の公立幼稚園の費用便益分析では便益として消費者余剰を用いた場合、費用と便益の比率は1に等しいという帰無仮説が棄却されなかった都道府県が5つ存在した。

第6回 (2006年度最終回)

日時: 2007年2月3日 (土曜日) 14:00-18:00

場所: 政策研究大学院大学 1階 会議室1B

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 川口大司氏 (一橋大学 経済学部)

  題目: Wage Distribution in Japan: 1989-2003 (with Ryo Kambayashi and Izumi Yokoyama)

  概要: Diverging economic inequality has become a common focus of economic debate in developed countries. In particular, the recent experience of Japan has started attracting international attention. We take advantage of a rich micro-level data set from the Basic Survey on Wage Structure (1989-2003) to perform an in-depth analysis of the change in the inequality and distribution of the hourly wage. We observe that lower returns to education and years of tenure contribute to diminishing income disparity between groups for both sexes. A larger variance within a group contributes to the wage disparity for males, while an increased heterogeneity of workers' attributes contributes to the wage disparity for females. The Dinardo, Fortin, and Lemieux decomposition also confirms the basic findings from a parametric variance decomposition.

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 石井利江子氏 (大阪大学大学院 経済学研究科)

  題目: Collusion in Repeated Procurement Auction: a Study of Paving Market in Japan

  概要: We present an econometric approach to the problem of detecting bid rigging in procurement auctions using bidding data in auctions for paving works in Ibaraki City, Osaka, Japan. We first show that sporadic price wars are caused by the participation of potential “outsiders.” Assuming that the ring is all-inclusive in the absence of these outsiders, we estimate the rule by which the ring selects the winner. It is found that the ring tends to select a bidder whose time elapsed from the last winning is long and whose winning amount in the past is small relative to other bidders.

場所: 政策研究大学院大学 5階 教室H

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 宮本由紀氏 (大阪大学大学院 経済学研究科)

  題目: 「地方歳出における中位投票者仮説の再検証---都道府県別パネルデータにおける推計」

  概要: 本稿では、Bergstrom and Goodman(1973)で用いられた中位投票者モデル を公共財の供給者である官僚行動も含めたWyckoff(1988)のモデルをベースとし、 日本の都道府県レベルにおいて、歳出総額では、「中位投票者仮説は」成立しな いが、、地方政府が裁量権を持つ土木費の中の普通建設費に関しては「中位投票 者仮説」が成立していることを実証分析によって明らかにした。

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 田畑 顕氏 (神戸市外国語大学)

  題目: "The Long-Term Care Problem, Precautionary Saving, and Economic Growth"

  概要: This paper examines the interaction between decisions about financing after-retirement health shocks and precautionary saving motives, and how this interaction affects economic development. We show that at low levels of income, individuals choose not to save to finance the cost of after-retirement health shocks. However, once individuals become sufficiently rich, they do choose to save to finance the cost of these shocks. This change in individual saving behavior may give rise to multiple steady state equilibria.

第2回

日時: 2005年7月9日(土曜日) 14:00-18:00

場所 政策研究大学院大学 5階 教室H

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 内藤 巧氏 (東京工業大学大学院 社会理工学研究科 社会工学専攻)

  題目: "Growth, revenue, and welfare effects of tariff and tax reform: win-win-win strategies"

  概要: T.B.A.

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 堀井 亮氏 (大阪大学大学院 経済学研究科)

  題目: Economic growth with imperfect protection of intellectual property rights

  概要: This paper examines the role of intellectual property rights (IPRs) in determining the rates of innovation and economic growth in a quality ladder model of endogenous growth. In the model, the degree of IPRs protection is specified as a policy variable which controls the rate of imitation occurring in monopolistic sectors. Stronger IPRs protection increases the expected duration of monopoly, giving a larger incentive to innovate. In the long-run, however, it increases the number of monopolistic sectors, where R&D are less active than in competitive sectors because the incumbent monopolist has little incentive to innovate (the Arrow effect) and because outsiders have to incur a large cost to innovate due to technological disadvantages as well as legal restrictions imposed by the IPR of the incumbent. If the latter effect dominates, strengthening IPRs does not necessarily enhance growth. The existence of a noncorner IPRs policy for maximizing growth is established in several settings.

第3回

日時: 2005年8月3日(水曜日) 14:00-18:00

場所: 政策研究大学院大学 3階 会議室3A

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 石橋郁雄氏 (青山学院大学 経済学部)

  題目: Collusive Price Leadership with Capacity Constraints

  概要: In this paper, collusive price leadership in homogeneous good capacity-constrained repeated price competition is examined. In the stage game, firms choose their timing of price setting. Although setting a price early is disadvantageous per se, a large firm has an incentive to move early in order to demonstrate its commitment not to deviate. If the discount factor is not too large, this behavior raises the collusive price compared to that arising in collusion with simultaneous moves. As a result, all firms obtain (strictly) higher profits.

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 篠崎 剛氏 (名古屋大学大学院 経済学研究科)

  題目: 関税による援助:動学的視点による再考

  概要: 本稿の目的は，二国二部門世代重複モデルを用いて，輸入関税率の引き下げが， 援助国，被援助国それぞれの経済厚生に与える影響を動学的視点から考察するこ とである。主に以下の二点に注目する。第一に関税率の引き下げによる財の輸入 国，輸出国への影響をみること，第二に関税率の引き下げを援助手段の一つとみ なし，直接的な援助との厚生比較を行なうことである。結果として，関税率の引 き下げは，静学的枠組みで現れる交易条件効果だけでなく，資本蓄積の影響に よっても左右されるということが明らかになる。これは時間選好率の大きさ，お よび差によって貿易量と資本蓄積量が異なることによる。

第4回

日時: 2005年9月7日(水曜日) 14:00-18:00

場所: 政策研究大学院大学 3階 会議室3A

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 山鹿久木氏 (筑波大学大学院 システム情報工学研究科)

  題目: 通勤の外部不経済の測定 (八田達夫との共著論文)

  概要: 本稿では、ＪＲ中央線沿線の家賃データをもとに、東京駅までの 通勤時間と通勤時混雑率を説明変数とする家賃関数を推定し、それを用いて２つ の分析を行う。第１に、通勤における総費用、時間費用、疲労費用を、等価変分 の概念を用いて求める。その結果、通勤の総費用に占める疲労費用の割合は5％〜 29％で、残りが時間費用であることを示す。第２に、追加的な通勤者によっても たらされる混雑悪化の外部不経済を、混雑率増大の限界費用をもとに算出する。 さらにそれにもとづいて、ＪＲ中央線の通勤混雑ピーク時に課すべき最適混雑料 金を各通勤区間ごとに求める。混雑料金は、通勤区間ごとに異なるが、分析の結 果、現行の定期運賃に比べてほぼ1倍〜3倍に設定する必要があることが示される。

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 石田潤一郎氏(大阪大学大学院 国際公共政策研究科)

  題目: Gender segregation of skill acquisition: theory and policy implications (coauthored with Hiromi Nosaka)

  概要: This paper presents a model that can account for the gender segregation of skill acquisition when the marriage market is competitive. We in particular show that when the burden of domestic activities, arising most notably from childbearing and child rearing, is asymmetrically placed on married women, there arises an incentive for them to deliberately degrade the quality of human capital investment. We then argue that this incentive can be excessively strong and gives rise to the emergence of an inefficient asymmetric equilibrium where a bulk of women concentrate exclusively on the acquisition of less productive skills in the market. The analysis reveals that an effective way to eliminate this inefficient outcome is to compensate married women for the opportunity cost of domestic activities, thereby reducing the earnings differential between single and married women, rather than to directly subsidize the acquisition of marketable skills.

第5回

日時: 2005年11月19日(土曜日) 14:00-18:00

場所: 政策研究大学院大学 1階 会議室B

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 細江宣裕氏 (政策研究大学院大学, 運輸政策研究機構 運輸政策研究所)

  題目: 内航貨物輸送における規制の影響分析

  概要: 内航海運業界は、戦後数十年の長きにわたって内航海運業法のいわゆる「内航二法」にもとづく 不況カルテル・参入規制によって保護されてきた。しかし、近年の規制緩和の流れの中でこの種の規制も例 外ではなく、暫定措置事業としてより緩やかな参入規制に衣替えされた。より緩やかな規制であるといって もやはり何らかの厚生損失は避けられない。本稿では、内航貨物輸送サービス市場の部分均衡モデルを構築 し、この暫定措置事業がもたらした社会厚生上の損失を計測する。

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 外谷英樹氏 (名古屋市立大学大学院 経済学研究科)

  題目: Economic Development and the Impacts of Natural Disasters (joint with Mark Skidmore)

  概要: In this paper we examine the degree to which the human and economic casualties caused by natural disasters are reduced as an economy develops. We use data over the period 1960-2003 on human and economic losses resulting from natural disasters collected by the Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance/Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (OFDA/CRED) to estimate the relationship between the level of economic development and the damages caused by natural catastrophes. We find that as income rises the deaths are reduced, but that economic damages rise. However, damages as a proportion of GDP fall as income rises. Thus, the relative human and economic losses are most serious in developing countries. Controlling for income, we also find that countries with greater human capital and more openness experience fewer human and economic losses from disasters. The results are relevant to both policymakers and field agencies engaged in assessing and setting disaster mitigation policies.

第6回

日時: 2005年12月3日(土曜日) 14:00-18:00

場所: 政策研究大学院大学 1階 会議室B

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 村田安寧氏 (日本大学大学院 総合科学研究科)

  題目: 空間経済の諸モデル

  概要: 空間経済学の主な目的のひとつは，おそらく消費，雇用，賃金，物価などの 経済諸変数の空間分布とその動学を説明することだろう．本報告では，こうした空 間分布や分布動学の分析に不可欠な集積力と分散力のモデリング手法をサーヴェイ し，今後の研究方向を提案する．

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 田中隆一氏 (大阪大学 社会経済研究所)

  題目: Does the Diversity of Human Capital Increase GDP?: A Comparison of Education Systems (with Katsuya Takii)

  概要: This paper examines how different education systems change GDP through their influence on the diversity of human capital. It shows that diverse human capital induced by heterogeneous income always lower GDP, while diverse human capital induced by heterogeneous ability can increase GDP if produced goods are sufficiently substitutable and firms have the large span of control. Hence, a tax-financed education system yields higher GDP than a self-financed education system, though the effect of ability tracking on GDP depends on the structure of industries and firms.

第7回

日時: 2006年1月14日(土曜日) 14:00-18:00

場所: 政策研究大学院大学 1階 会議室B

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 椋寛氏 (学習院大学大学院 経済学研究科)

  題目: Trade Liberalization and Foreign Direct Investment in Services under International Oligopoly (with Jota Ishikawa and Hodaka Morita)

  概要: By a duopoly model with product differentiation, this paper examines interaction between trade liberalization in commodities and foreign direct investment (FDI) in services. After consumers buy goods, a certain fraction of foreign units is broken and the consumer can repair the broken units by purchasing repair services. Without service FDI, trade liberalization encourages the domestic firm's entry into the service market, and it may reduce imports, benefit the domestic firm, and hurt the foreign firm as well as consumers. With service FDI, trade liberalization has the usual effects. The result suggests the importance of service trade liberalization.

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 宝多康弘氏 (南山大学 総合政策学部)

  題目: Trade, Pollution Policy, and Environmental Technology

  概要: We examine gains from trade in a small open economy model with the　 inter-industry interaction caused by pollution. In our model, the economy is diversified in the trading equilibrium so that it cannot avoid the negative impact of pollution through the spatial separation of production. First, we show that free trade may harm the economy depending on the trade pattern and the level of a pollution tax. Second, unless a pollution tax is optimal, the introduction of new pollution-reducing technology can harm the economy even if it is costless. We also derive a similar result under tariff policy.

第8回

日時: 2006年3月3日 (金曜日) 14:00-18:00

場所: 政策研究大学院大学 1階 会議室B

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 小川禎友氏 (近畿大学 経済学部)

  題目: The Byrd Amendment as Facilitating a Tacit International Business Collusion (with Yoshiyasu Ono)

  概要: We analyze the effect of the Byrd Amendment, which amended the US Tariff Act of 1930 to allow revenue from antidumping duties to be distributed to domestic import-competing firms. In an international duopoly framework it is shown that it urges the home firm to restrict output so that the foreign firm increases output and that revenue from the duties increases. Consequently, not only the home firm but also the foreign firm can be better off while only consumers are worse off. Home total surplus increases if the foreign rival firm is much more efficient, but otherwise decreases.

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 赤井伸郎氏 (兵庫県立大学 経営学部)

  題目: 公営企業における官と民と地方の役割分担:都市交通・水道の観点から

  概要: 昨年来始まった三位一体改革により、地方自治体は、これまで以上に、自己責任 のもと財政運営を行っていかなければならない。そのためには、地域の厚生を高 める方向で、官と民がお互いに得意分野を担い、限られた資源を有効に活用する ことが必要となる。しかしながら、特に、中間に位置する分野に関しては、この 役割分担が十分になされておらず問題が多い。たとえば、近年議論されている公 営企業(特別会計)や公社に代表されるように、民間で可能なサービスを官が提 供していたり、第三セクターに代表されるように、官と民の役割分担の不明確さ が、過剰投資や破綻問題を引き起こしていたりする場合も多い。

  これは、単に提供されているサービスに問題があるというよりも、公共サービス を提供する公的な組織の問題であり、どのような組織体系が必要であるのかを考 える必要がある。このような組織の問題を解決するためには、現存の組織が内部 からその存在意義をつねに意識し、また、外部からもその存在意義を監視する仕 組み、地方自治のガバナンスのあり方を考えることが重要である。

  ここで問題としている分野は、PPP(Public Private Partnership:公共サービ スの民間開放)と言う概念をもとに、 さまざまな分野で議論されているが、理論的見地からの考察は少ない。地方自治 体においてどのような仕組みが効率的な官と民の役割分担を実現させるのか、す なわち、ガバナンス構造のあり方を、全体の実態、自治体間の効率性の比較、意 識格差(新しい仕組みへの取り組み)の把握などから考えることは可能であろう。

  本研究では、特に、公営企業における都市交通に着目し、効率的な官と民の役割 分担を実現させるガバナンスの仕組みを政策提言する。

問い合わせ先

〒106-8677 東京都港区六本木7-22-1

政策研究大学院大学 助教授

*岡本亮介

e-mail: rokamoto@grips.ac.jp

*細江宣裕

政策研究大学院大学 助教授

e-mail:

Tel: 03-6439-6129(細江研究室), -6128(岡本研究室), -6000(大学代表)

Fax: 03-6439-6010

場所 政策研究大学院大学 3階 教室E

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 藤原　徹氏 (明海大学 不動産学部)

  題目: 「環境政策における自動車税制活用の定量的評価」

  概要: 自動車税制の「グリーン化」やガソリン税の増税など、自動車税制を活用した環境政策がどの程度のＣＯ２排出量削減効果を持ち、環境改善便益を含めた社会的費用/便益がどの程度発生するのか、比較的小規模なミクロモデルを用いたシミュレーション分析によって定量的に評価する。
  

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 唐渡広志 氏 (富山大学 経済学部)

  題目: 「企業立地と集積の経済」

  概要: 企業間の空間的な相互依存が存在する都市構造を描写し、企業立地を特徴づける条件について考察する。また、このような理論仮説のもとで企業および都市の投入・産出の技術的対応関係を間接的に測定する方法，東京都心部を例とした実証結果を報告する。

第2回

日時 2005年1月8日(土) 14:00-18:00

場所 政策研究大学院大学 3F 教室E

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 安藤至大 氏 (政策研究大学院大学)

  題目: "Inventing Around and Litigation under Asymmetric Information"

  概要: This paper studies a model of patent licensing when there is a possibility of inventing around. We show that licensing is still useful as way to avoid litigation although the licensing fee declines with ease of inventing around. We show that litigation occurs only if there is asymmetric information regarding thepotential entrant's ability of inventing around. We also examine possible consequences of pro-patent policies, such as introduction of punitive damage awards and a more aggressive use of the doctrine of equivalents. We show that these policies may increase the number of litigation but may reduce the probability of patent holder's success.
  

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 鈴木 亘 氏 (東京学芸大学)

  題目: 「平成14年診療報酬マイナス改定は機能したのか? ―整形外科レセプトデータを利用した医師誘発需要の検証−」

  概要: 　本稿は、平成14年4月から実施された診療報酬マイナス改定が、その後の医療費を抑制できたのかという点について評価を行い、合わせて医師誘発需要の存在を検証した。これまでわが国で行われてきた医師誘発需要の検証は、医師密度と医療費の関係から探るものばかりであったが、本稿は診療費支払いの変化というNatural Experimentを利用して、内生性や識別性の問題を回避するアプローチから、わが国で初めて検証を行った。

第3回

日時: 2005年2月19日(土)

場所: 政策研究大学院大学

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 村田安寧氏 (東京都立大学経済学部)

  題目: A General Equilibrium Model of Monopolistic Competition with Endogenous Mark-ups (with Kristian Behrens)

  概要: We analyze a class of `large group' Chamberlinian monopolistic competition models using multiplicatively quasi-separable (MQS) and additively quasi-separable (AQS) functions. We prove that the MQS and AQS functions are equivalent to the `constant relative risk aversion' (CRRA) and `constant absolute risk aversion' (CARA) classes of functions, respectively. Whereas both approaches allow for closed-form solutions, only the AQS functions yield profit-maximizing prices that decrease in the mass of competing firms. We characterize the equilibrium in both cases and discuss some possible applications of the AQS framework.
  

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 大土井涼二氏(大阪大学大学院 経済学研究科)

  題目: "Intergenerational Strategic Complementarity in a Growth Model with Education"

  概要: Constructing an overlapping generations model with physical and human capital accumulations, this paper explicitly examines the relationship between the intergenerational strategic interaction and the patterns of economic growth. We show that, depending on the expectations held by the overlapping agents, the long-term pattern of growth in the model can be either a convergence to a steady state as in a standard neoclassical growth model, a balanced growth as in a standard endogenous growth model, or permanent growth cycles associated with the transitions of its growth process: for some periods the economy behaves alike neoclassical growth model, followed by the behavior like endogenous growth model for some periods.

第4回

日時: 2005年3月12日(土)

場所: 政策研究大学院大学 会議室B

地図: http://www.grips.ac.jp/jp/docs/map.pdf

• 14:00-15:50

  講演者: 清水大昌氏 (東京大学社会科学研究所)

  題目: Policy interaction in North-South FTA targeting outsiders' export and FDI.(with 舘健太郎)

  概要: We analyze the formation of Free Trade Agreements (FTA) between a developed country and developing countries. The form of FTAs affects the trade structure in the region, as the firms from countries not part of the FTA will choose between exporting to the developed member of the FTA or engaging in an FDI into one of the developing countries. Their decisions depend on the tariff-included cost differences in the choices and fixed cost for FDI. The members of the FTAs are in a conflicting position regarding this issue, as an increase in the number of FDI is beneficial for the developing members while a decrease is better for the developed member. This conflict of interest can cause tariff levels to move generally in the decreasing direction. Finally, we analyze how the developing countries would act before the inception of FTAs. We conclude that they have an incentive to form a customs union to strengthen their bargaining position. This may have been one of the issues behind the formation of MERCOSUR in South America.
  

• 16:10-18:00

  講演者: 舘健太郎氏(日本福祉大学経済学部)

  題目: 「ネットワークの経済分析」

  概要: ネットワークに関する研究は幅広い分野で行われているが、特に経済学に おけるこれまでの理論・応用研究を、論点を整理しながら紹介したい。発表は二 部で構成される。前半はこれまでの研究の流れといくつかの代表的な論文のサー ベイを行う。後半は、応用研究の例としてMukunoki-Tachi (2001) "Multilateralism and Hub-and-Spoke Bilateralism"を紹介する。この論文は、 近年盛んに行われている先進国間の自由貿易協定締結を戦略的なネットワーク形 成とみなしてモデル化した試みである。